CFP National Championship Betting Preview

Happy MLK Day, everybody.

Thanks to the Texans’ kicking woes, Saquon Barkley and a couple other good bounces in the NFL Divisional Round, we’re coming off our best edition of Worth a Sprinkle to date. You’re welcome!

By my (admittedly shaky) math, if you’ve tailed every bet this newsletter has ever given out,¹ you’re in the black!

Overall, we’re not up a ton through seven editions, but that’s nonetheless worth mentioning.

Also worth gloating about: I’m pumped to be close to 50 subscribers, and would love to reach that milestone by kickoff tonight. After Josh Allen got to 10 rushing attempts thanks to some late kneel-downs last night and Barkley ran wild to cash prop bets priced at +120, +175 and +360, it feels like anything is possible.

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• College Football Playoff National Championship Bet …

  • Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds: Spread, Mo …

  • Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Betting Analysis

  • Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Best Bets

  • Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets

College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Preview: Ohio State (-8.5) vs. Notre Dame

Tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET,² the highly anticipated conclusion to the first season with a 12-team playoff wraps up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

After a disastrous showing in Volume I of Worth a Sprinkle, which previewed the first round of the College Football Playoff, I was hit or miss overall on both the quarterfinals and the semifinals, but the QF and SF bets both yielded a little profit.

The Ohio State-Notre Dame matchup this evening to crown this year’s champ is full of intriguing storylines. The biggest question is whether Riley Leonard and the Irish can hang with the best, most explosive offense in the country for 60 minutes.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Below are the odds for tonight’s game. Despite a strong CFP run including wins over Indiana, Georgia and Ohio State, coach Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish are substantial ‘dogs.

In three playoff games, Ohio State has been dominant for 120 of 180 minutes. The Buckeyes’ semifinal win over Texas was much closer than the final score indicated, though (no complaints about that final margin here!)

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Betting Analysis

Notre Dame boasts an impressive defense, even with star corner Benjamin Morrison and leading pass rusher Rylie Mills sidelined by injuries.

But the Irish, who have (very successfully) played a ton of man-to-man coverage this year, have not seen a passing game like Ohio State’s.

Can Notre Dame’s secondary hold up against OSU’s dynamic passing attack?

Whatever you think of Ohio State QB Will Howard, he’s been on point in CFP action.

Despite being intercepted by both Tennessee and Texas (the former came after he helped the Buckeyes build a 21-point first-half lead over the Vols), Howard has posted incredible numbers (73.8 completion percentage, 919 yards passing and six TDs) in three playoff games, and that’s without OSU needing to score down the stretch against either Tennessee or Oregon.

ND stifled Indiana and Georgia for the most part. It also shut down every Penn State target besides tight end Tyler Warren — the Nittany Lions’ entire wide receiving corps did not account for a single reception.

But playing man more snaps than not (assuming Notre Dame DC Al Golden sticks with that coverage tonight) against OSU WRs Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbeka and Carnell Tate seems like a recipe for disaster.

The problem for any opposing defense taking on the Buckeyes (besides Michigan, of course) is their balance. The Longhorns fared much better than Tennessee and Oregon by refusing to let Smith beat them deep, holding Howard to 289 yards passing on 33 attempts and Smith to just 1 catch for 3 yards.

The problem with that was that it resulted in UT struggling to contain Tate (7 catches, 87 yards), Egbuka (5 catches, 51 yards) and TE Gee Scott Jr. (5 catches, 30 yards). Texas also gave up a 75-yard TD on a screen pass to RB TreVeyon Henderson just before halftime.

We won’t know until the first series of the game tonight whether Golden is willing to mix in more zone against Smith and Egbuka. Regardless of how he approaches this aspect of the game, though, he’s stuck between a rock and a hard place.

How will ND’s banged up O-line fare against Ohio State’s loaded pass rush?

Unfortunately for Notre Dame, the injury woes to key players aren’t exclusive to the defensive side of the ball. Left tackle Anthonie Knapp is expected to miss tonight’s game after getting injured during the win over PSU. Right guard Rocco Spindler was also hurt in that CFP semifinal game, though the latter is expected to start tonight.

Knapp’s “backup” in this game is actually redshirt freshman Charles Jagusah, who entered fall camp as the starter at that position before suffering what most thought was a season-ending injury before Week 1. But Jagusah has recovered just in time to take Knapp’s place against arguably the best pass rush in the country.

We all remember Jack Sawyer’s game-winning sack and scoop-and-score late in Ohio State’s semifinal win over Texas. That was just one of a remarkable 10 sacks that Sawyer and fellow future NFL DE JT Tuimoloau have combined to force in the last three games. The duo has also racked up 12.5 tackles for loss and seven pass breakups in playoff action.

Suggesting that life could get more difficult tonight for the ND OL — after that unit weathered two injuries and gave up five sacks to Penn State while dealing with likely future top-5 NFL Draft pick Abdul Carter last time out — sounds absurd, but not to anyone familiar with the dominant OSU front four.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Best Bets

There’s certainly a world where Notre Dame manages to lean on RB Jeremiyah Love and Leonard in the ground game to eat the clock and methodically produce enough offense to keep this one close. I especially like the chances of an Irish upset if the defense can also force Howard into a few mistakes.

Those seem like realistic enough possibilities that I don’t blame anyone for taking Notre Dame to come out hot (think first quarter spread — ND 1Q ML, anyone?? — first half spread, etc.)

But Howard should be able to take care of the football and find open receivers if the Irish are as aggressive tonight with man-coverage and blitzes as they’ve been throughout the CFP.

Ohio State’s ceiling is just too high for me to pick Notre Dame to cover, much less pull the upset.

So no, I’m not interested in banking on an elite offensive team like OSU — whose defense has also piled up 16 sacks and given up just 52 points in three playoff games — to play poorly tonight.

All that being said, I see value in a small play or two on ND to win the first quarter and/or keep this thing low-scoring for 30 minutes.

• Ohio State -8.5 (-110 at FD) 1 unit

• First half under 23 (-115 at bet365) 0.5 units

• Notre Dame first quarter ML (+176 at FD) 0.25 units

Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets

We got burned on Leonard’s rushing yards, but after he logged 54 total carries in three playoff games (11 vs. Indiana, 14 vs. Georgia and 18 vs. Penn State), it’s clear he’s going to be a focal point, whether ND’s designed QB runs are working or not.

• Riley Leonard over 14.5 rush attempts (-102 at FanDuel) 0.5 units

1  A) more details than anyone is asking for that no one asked for on the Worth a Sprinkle “P&L” to date coming later this week B)🤞I didn’t just jinx all the picks to come.

2  Your guess is as good as mine on when this thing will actually kick off