Introducing: Worth a Sprinkle

worth a sprinkle

[ wurth-uh-spring-kuhl ]

betting phrase

When a small wager offers more potential reward than risk, it’s worth a sprinkle.

Example: I understand why that team — or in this case, newsletter — is the underdog, but it’s worth a sprinkle at that price.¹

Good afternoon!

Happy to be in your inbox.

After more than a decade of writing for a range of publications, today I’m venturing into the newsletter game to build an audience I can reach directly.

Introduction

If you’re familiar with me from my work for Newsweek, Gaming Today or High Press Soccer, thanks so much for checking me out here!

If not, here’s my author bio with the essentials:

Mission statement:

• A) provide a smart look at what to keep in mind when betting on college football, the NFL and more.

• B) win us all some money

How to Bet Indiana vs. Notre Dame

Without further ado, let’s get this party started with my take on the first of the four College Football Playoff games this weekend. 

If your weekend isn’t already scheduled to revolve around the must-see CFP matchups on tap, here are the kickoff times (all times ET) for all four games, plus how to watch them on TV.

• Friday: Indiana (10) at Notre Dame (7), 8 PM ET (ABC/ESPN)

• Saturday: SMU (11) at Penn State (6), 12 PM ET (TNT/Max)

• Saturday: Clemson (12) at Texas (5), 4 PM ET (TNT/Max)

• Saturday: Tennessee (9) at Ohio State (8), 8 PM ET (ABC/ESPN)

Underrated storyline: two of this weekend’s games are airing on TNT and Max (aka HBO MAX). Who knew??

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Betting Analysis

The action starts in South Bend, Indiana, where the Fighting Irish – like every home team playing this weekend – are favored. 

At DraftKings and bet365, the Irish are favored by seven points, while FanDuel lists the Hoosiers as 6.5-point underdogs.

Notre Dame didn’t play the toughest schedule in the country by any means. Still, what the Irish did this season (outside of a stunning, ugly Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois) was impressive. ND blew out a lot of bad teams, but its 11-1 record also included wins over three solid — albeit unranked — teams: Louisville, Texas A&M (on the road in Week 1) and Georgia Tech.

Indiana also ripped through a soft schedule, with 10 of its 11 wins coming by at least 14 points.

But first-year IU head coach Curt “Google Me” Cignetti’s team wasn’t terribly competitive against the only team on its schedule that is comparable to Notre Dame. I’m referring, of course, to Ohio State, which beat Indiana 38-15 on Nov. 23.

Indiana jumped out to a 7-0 lead in that game, but trailed 14-7 at halftime and 28-7 going into the fourth quarter, raising questions about whether Indiana was truly one of the best teams in the country.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Best Bets

Does a one-sided loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus mean the Hoosiers will be overmatched against Notre Dame in this game?

I don’t necessarily think so, but I do like Notre Dame to cover. The snowy weather tonight, plus the home crowd, make it hard for me to see Indiana hanging with the Irish for 60 minutes. A close game at halftime and/or entering the fourth quarter shouldn’t shock anyone.

Eventually, though, Notre Dame — which has only found itself in two close games since mid-September — is going to make enough plays to not only win, but cover.

In addition to taking Notre Dame to cover, I also like this game’s Under. While both teams were among the best in the country in the regular season in both points scored and points allowed, I trust these defenses tonight more than I trust QBs Riley Leonard and Kurtis Rourke.

• Notre Dame -6.5 (-120) — available at FanDuel

• Under 50.5 (-115) — also available at FD

College Football Playoff Best Bets for December 21

SMU at Penn State Best Bets

In recent years, it’s been fair to expect Penn State to blow out pretty much anyone that’s not Ohio State or Michigan.

This year, though, the Nittany Lions struggled against Minnesota a few weeks ago, and they also had a hard time pulling away from USC, Illinois and Wisconsin (though they did end up beating both the Illini and Badgers by two touchdowns).

SMU is legit, and it nearly took down Clemson in the ACC Championship Game despite falling into a massive early hole. Kevin Jennings will be able to move the ball against a PSU defense that looked vulnerable against good quarterbacks this year (Penn State gave up 33 points to USC and 45 to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game).

I don’t quite expect SMU to pull the upset, but I like them to cover in a high-scoring shootout.

• SMU +9 (-110) at bet365

• Over 53 (-110) at bet365

Clemson at Texas Best Bets

Expect points to be at a premium in this game. Clemson’s stout D-line should be able to keep this game close against a Longhorns offense that underwhelmed down the stretch this year.

For me, the biggest question will be whether Clemson QB Cade Klubnik can perform at a high level against one of the best defenses he’s faced this season. Klubnik’s numbers this year were outstanding, but he struggled in the season opener against Georgia, and he and the Tigers were unable to salt away a big lead vs. SMU in the ACC Championship Game.

Clemson is probably getting too little respect in this game at +12.5, but the bet I feel most confident in here is the Under.

• Under 50.5 (-110) — available at DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365

Tennessee at Ohio State Best Bets

While I like SMU to cover on the road in Happy Valley, Vols-Buckeyes is where I see the most potential for an upset.

Tennessee is too good defensively and in the running game to be getting this many points, even after the Vols’ trip to Athens in mid-November showed that this defense might not be quite as invincible as it looked for most of the season.

That being said, OSU QB Will Howard struggled against quality defenses this season, leading OSU to just 21 points against Nebraska, 20 points against Penn State and a miserable 10 points against Michigan in the regular-season finale.

I like Tennessee to stun Ohio State in a low-scoring game to send OSU coach Ryan Day and the entire OSU program into a tailspin. The safe plays are the under and Vols +7.5.

Tennessee at longer than +200 on the moneyline is also well worth a sprinkle (I promise to at least try not to wear that out) of a quarter- or half-unit, especially at the price available over at DraftKings.

• Tennessee moneyline (+235) — available at DraftKings (0.5 units)

• Tennessee +7.5 (-112) — DK

• Under 46.5 (-110) — FD

About Worth a Sprinkle

The premise of this newsletter is hopefully pretty obvious, but here’s a bit more on what this whole thing is all about.

In case your first reaction when you saw this was anything other than, “Oh thank God for another dude on the Internet inundating us will all sports betting takes,” here’s my case for why you should consider making me your go-to sports betting expert² .

First of all, I’m a sicko who spends a ton of time watching and reading about this stuff. As a result, I’ve hit more of my bets than I’ve missed since sports betting went legal in North Carolina — especially when I’ve stuck to sports I know and steered clear of things like the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest and the scam that was Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul.

I plan to publish details on my track record soon, I swear, but kickoff of Indiana vs. Notre Dame is about two hours away, and I want to press “publish” ASAP.

Self-Assessing the Name “Worth a Sprinkle”

Related: A) Please do NOT ask me how much of my time went into this (Spoiler: too much!)

1  That intro is supposed to give dictionary vibes (in case that’s not as obvious as I hoped it would be)

2  Insofar as anyone can ever really be an “expert” on this