NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview

We’re down to eight teams that still have a shot at this year’s Lombardi Trophy, and all four Divisional matchups this weekend are must-see TV (spreads via DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon)

• Texans at Chiefs (-8.5) — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)

• Commanders at Lions (-8.5) — Saturday, 8 p.m. (FOX)

• Rams at Eagles (-6.5) — Sunday, 3 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

• Ravens (-1.5) at Bills — Sunday, 6:30 p.m. (CBS/Paramount+)

In the words of Bart Scott — and also avid Worth a Sprinkle enthusiast Tom Healy (IYKYK):

Before breaking down these games, I want to say that I’m stoked to have nearly 40 subscribers already.

I’d love to get to 50 by the time I send Volume VIII on Monday (#shootingforthemoon), so if you’re enjoying Worth a Sprinkle, please help me spread the word via the handy button below.

Monday’s Worth a Sprinkle will break down how the bets I’ve given out have gone so far. For the most part, though, we’ll focus on Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Jump To

• Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

  • Texans vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Texans vs. Chiefs Best Bets

• Commanders vs. Lions Betting Preview

  • Commanders-Lions Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Commanders vs. Lions Best Bets

• Rams vs. Eagles Betting Preview

  • Rams vs. Eagles Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Rams vs. Eagles Best Bets

• Ravens vs. Bills Betting Preview

  • Ravens vs. Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Ravens vs. Bills Best Bets

Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

For the second time in as many weeks, the Texans are underdogs, this time on the road against the back-to-back champs.

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Houston’s offense played much better than I expected it would last week, but the real reason the Texans beat the Chargers was the DeMeco Ryans-led defense.

Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Co. shut down the L.A. running game and sacked Justin Herbert four times, and the underrated Houston secondary came up with four interceptions to put that game out of reach in the third quarter.

The Chiefs got a much-needed bye last weekend, so they should be as fresh and dangerous as they’ve been all season. With Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt healthy and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce fresh after a couple weeks off, can the Chiefs replicate their success in a 27-19 win over Houston back in Week 16?

Can Houston’s pass rush spark another upset?

There’s reason for Chiefs fans to worry about the outstanding Houston pass rush having another big day against a Chiefs O-line that has struggled at times this year, especially at tackle.

But with All-Pro guard Joe Thuney capably taking over at left tackle down the stretch, Mahomes has gotten better pass protection from that position than he did from rookie Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris for most of this year.

As long as Thuney and right tackle Jawaan Taylor can hold their own at home, Mahomes should be able to move the ball. With speedster Hollywood Brown finally in the mix, rookie Xavier Worthy coming off a strong finish to the regular season, this offense is healthy and trending in the right direction.

It won’t necessarily be easy for Kansas City to move the ball against the Texans, but Mahomes’ playoff experience will (obviously) be huge, and I expect the Houston defense to wear down at some point.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense should be able to limit a Houston offense that has some stars in WR Nico Collins, RB Joe Mixon and QB CJ Stroud, but lacks complementary receivers after injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

More than anything, though, it’s the underwhelming Houston O-line, which gave up three sacks a week ago, that makes it hard to see the Texans pulling the upset.

Texans vs. Chiefs Best Bets

Going chalk, especially by doubting a team that just cost me a week ago, could backfire, but I don’t think the Texans are on the Chiefs’ level.

Getting burned on almost every total I took last week makes me tempted to stay away from the over/under, but I feel comfortable with a small bet on this one being low-scoring.

Related: after four of six games last weekend featured 17 first-half points or fewer (as a matter of fact, all but one Wild Card game’s first-half total was 21 or less), there’s value in taking the first-half under in addition to the under.

• Chiefs -8.5 (-105 at DraftKings) 1 unit

• Under 41.5 (-110 at FD, bet365) 0.5 units

• First half under 20.5 (-105 at DK) 0.5 units

Commanders vs. Lions Betting Preview

The Texans aren’t the only team that won as an underdog on Wild Card weekend. The Commanders were able to upset Tampa Bay on the road, as rookie QB Jayden Daniels showed poise beyond his years in a 23-20 win by Washington.

Commanders-Lions Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Can the Commanders get enough stops to keep this interesting in the fourth quarter? That’s the biggest question in this game.

The Lions, who led the league in scoring at 33.2 points per game, were only held in check a few times all year. With RB David Montgomery back in action and his team coming off a bye, Detroit should be able to roll against a Washington D that has been one of the worst in the league against the run.

The Commanders gave up 150 rushing yards or more seven times this year, including 200-plus three times. I expect Jahmyr Gibbs and/or Montgomery to both have huge nights. Even if Washington has some early offensive success, I expect Detroit to pull away eventually.

Commanders vs. Lions Best Bets

The Lions scored at least 40 points five different times this year. In a do-or-die game that could end being a shootout, there’s a ton of value in taking Detroit to not only cover, but put up a ton of points.

• Lions -8.5 (-108 at DK) 1 unit

• Lions (alt) team total over 34.5 (+130 at DK) 0.5 units

• 🪜Lions TT over 41.5 (+410 at DK) 0.25 units 🪜

Rams vs. Eagles Betting Preview

Can L.A. pull another upset — and avenge a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12 — after dominating Sam Darnold and the Vikings last Monday night?

Rams vs. Eagles Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

The first players you think of when the Rams come to mind are probably Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Last Monday night, though, the heroes of the Rams’ 27-9 win over the Vikings were young pass rushers Jared Verse (the rookie had 2 tackles, plus a 57-yard scoop-and-score), Kobie Turner (2 sacks) and Byron Young (1.5 sacks), to name just a few of the stars of L.A.’s nine-sack beatdown.

Beating Philly’s outstanding O-line and taking down Jalen Hurts will be a much tougher task, though, and that’s assuming L.A. can play the run well enough to force Philly into third-and-long.

Stopping Saquon Barkley, especially in the snow, looms as one of the biggest challenges for any team in action this weekend.

Barkley, ICYMI, had the best game of his incredible 2,000-yard season in the regular-season meeting between these teams, with over 300 total yards (255 rushing, 47 receiving) and two TDs.

The Rams offense has a tough task of its own against Jalen Carter and a Philly D with game-wreckers at every level. Even if Stafford manages to stay out of trouble by getting rid of the ball quickly, I don’t see the Rams having success on the ground in Philly after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry on the year.

Rams vs. Eagles Best Bets

I think L.A. will keep this one relatively close despite how dominant the Eagles were in Round 1, but I like Philadelphia to advance.

I can’t make up my mind about how to tackle the spread, but I do like Barkley to have a massive afternoon in terms of both rushing attempts and rushing yards. He went over 150 yards rushing two of the last three weeks and logged 25 carries or more in each of Philly’s last three games.

While it’s risky to devote every play to the same player, that (hopefully) doesn’t make it unwise, and the prices on these Barkley props are hard to resist.

• Saquon Barkley 120+ rushing yards (+120 at DK) 1 unit

• 🪜Barkley 150+ rushing yards (+360 at DK) 🪜0.5 units

• Barkley 25+ rush attempts (+175 at DK) 0.75 units

Ravens vs. Bills Betting Preview

On paper, this looks like one of the best Divisional Round games¹ in a long, long time.

It would be nearly impossible for anything to top the unforgettable Chiefs-Bills OT game at this same stadium three years ago, but no Divisional matchup since that one has generated this kind of hype and anticipation.

Ravens vs. Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

This year’s regular-season MVP will be either Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, though Jackson appears to have the edge after AP voters named him first-team All-Pro.

Adding to the motivation for the Bills:

• A) they lost to Baltimore 35-10 back in Week 4

• B) they’re home underdogs despite a 13-4 regular season followed by a dominant Wild Card win over the Broncos last Sunday.

There are a million pivotal questions that will decide who moves on to face the Chiefs (assuming, of course, that KC handles Houston at home). A few of the most interesting ones include:

Will a healthy Buffalo defense be able to contain the Baltimore running game?

When these teams met back in September on Sunday Night Football, the Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, plus nickel corner Taron Johnson. Starting safety Taylor Rapp also left the game in the second quarter due to injury.

Check out The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia’s piece here for a great look at just how shorthanded the Buffalo D was in that game, and how much different it will look on Sunday.

Those four should be able to make it much more difficult for Baltimore — which ran for 271 yards in the previous meeting, including an 87-yard TD run by Derrick Henry — to run the ball.

That being said, Henry (26 carries, 186 yards, 2 TDs) and Jackson (15 carries, 81 yards) are both coming off dominant performances against a good Steelers front seven. If the Ravens show the same commitment to the running game on Sunday night, is there anything Buffalo — or anyone — can do to slow down Henry and Jackson?

Who wins the line of scrimmage when Buffalo has the ball?

The Bills are a good running team in their own right. Allen was once again effective this year (5.2 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns) after rushing for an absurd 15 TDs in 2023. Behind an underrated O-line anchored by Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins, RB James Cook also piled up nearly 1,300 total yards of offense (1,009 rushing, 258 receiving) and 18 total TDs.

The bad news for Buffalo is that Baltimore’s run defense is the best in the league by several metrics. The Ravens allowed just 3.6 yards per carry this season. The only team all year that had any real success running the ball on Baltimore was Philadelphia, whose dominant ground game ran for 140 yards on the Ravens — but needed 33 carries to get those yards.

Ravens vs. Bills Best Bets

Betting against Allen and Buffalo, who have done everything in recent years except beat Mahomes in the playoffs, feels like a great way to lose money.

However, if we’re wagering based on which of these rosters is more complete, I’m leaning toward Baltimore. The Ravens offense has been historically good all year, and this defense has been excellent in recent weeks after some early-season struggles against the pass.

The Buffalo offense has gotten massive contributions from its unheralded backs and receivers all year. But against a defense as good as Baltimore’s, I don’t trust the likes of Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir to make quite enough plays to outscore the Ravens.

It’s hard to unsee the Ravens’ recent postseason disappointments, though. Is this the year we finally see Jackson at his best in the Divisional Round and/or later? Jackson’s fit alongside Henry, plus the Bills’ vulnerable run D (Buffalo is allowing 4.5 yards per carry), tell me to expect a breakthrough playoff performance on Sunday night.

Down the stretch, both these defenses will probably struggle to get stops, but if I’m picking the winner, I have to go with the Ravens, I think.

The safest thing to do with a game this evenly matched is to steer clear of the spread. Here are a couple of plays I like in a matchup that feels impossible to predict, but well worth your attention.

Ultimately, I’m going with Allen to use his legs a ton and the Ravens to start the game off strong after Buffalo’s slow start against the Broncos in last week’s eventual 31-7 Wild Card win. Henry and Jackson should both have big nights, but the prices on their rushing props don’t offer a ton of value, IMO.

• Josh Allen 10+ rush attempts (+115 at DK) 1 unit

• First Half Winner (3-Way*) Ravens (+105 at FD) 1 unit

*The three-way moneyline means that if the game is tied at halftime, the winning wager would be “Tie,” which is why the Ravens and Bills are both plus-money in this market.

1  My personal favorite: Panthers vs. Rams, 2004