NFL Wild Card Betting Preview Part I: LAC-HOU, PIT-BAL, DEN-BUF

On Thursday, I hyped up the current stretch of football we’re being treated to as one of the best in recent memory.

So far, so damn good.

The College Football Playoff Semifinals — and our bets on Notre Dame vs. Penn State and Ohio State vs Texas (more on that below) — lived up to the billing.

Now, the “blizzard” that has descended upon Charlotte means a couple things:

• bread and milk are hard to find if you haven’t already loaded up. Fortunately, though, there’s nothing on the roads, so you should be able to make it to as many stores as it takes to find the essentials

• we’ve got perfect conditions to lock in for one NFL playoff game after another over the next few days.

SUBSCRIBE, SUBSCRIBE, SUBSCRIBE, por favor, via the button below to get more of a newsletter that is making undeniable progress:

• Volume I: -.3.8 units (😕sometimes, you get what you pay for)

• Volume II: +0.86 units (sometimes, I over-deliver on “free newsletter worth every cent”)

• Volume IV*: +0.46 units — ND-PSU bets were a wash, essentially, while the Buckeyes (eventually) did enough to win, and cover, on Friday. Thoughts on all that coming later

• *The jury is still out on the Volume III NFL playoff overview

Jump to

• Chargers vs. Texans Betting Preview

  • Chargers vs. Texans Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Can Struggling Texans Offense Come Alive at Home?

  • Chargers vs. Texans Best Bets

• Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Preview

  • Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Odds

  • Steelers vs. Ravens Best Bets

• Broncos vs. Bills Betting Preview

  • Broncos-Bills Odds

  • Broncos vs. Bills Best Bets

• Looking Back: Note Dame vs. Penn State (-.02 units …

  • Ohio State-Texas Best Bets In Review (+0.50 units)

Chargers vs. Texans Betting Preview

How to Watch Chargers vs. Texans

• Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

• TV: CBS

There was a considerable gap in what was expected of these two teams this season.

While the Texans were a trendy Super Bowl pick after CJ Stroud’s incredible rookie season, the Chargers were a tough team to figure out, with oddsmakers listing them as slight underdogs to make the playoffs.

Would the combo of Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert overcome the lack of experienced talent at several key positions? In hindsight, that was a stupid question.

Of course, Harbaugh needed no time at all to turn around the defense, resurrect RB JK Dobbins’ career, and lead this team to an 11-win season in one of the toughest divisions in football.

As a matter of fact, L.A. — which finished the season on a three-game winning streak in which it outscored the Broncos, Pats and Raiders 108-54 — is on such a roll that it is favored by a field goal on the road in Saturday’s Wild Card opener.

Chargers vs. Texans Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Below are the odds, as of Saturday morning, at DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365.

The Texans have struggled since starting the year 5-1, with a record of 5-6 in their last 11 games, justifying the low playoff expectations around Stroud and Co. Houston finished the year with a point differential of 0, a clear sign that if they were in any division other than the AFC South, their season would have already ended.

As I detailed earlier this week, the Texans have among the longest odds to win Super Bowl 59 of anyone in the playoffs.

Can Struggling Texans Offense Come Alive at Home?

Season-ending injuries to WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell have hurt the offense, but the biggest problem has been the O-line, which has been one of the worst in the league.

Amid that unit’s struggles, Stroud was sacked 52 times this year, with nearly 9 percent of his dropbacks ending with him failing to even get a throw off. Only Bears rookie Caleb Williams, who was sacked an astonishing 68 times, endured more punishment than Stroud this year.

Houston’s struggles along the offensive line also derailed a promising season by RB Joe Mixon. The former Bengal had plenty of early-season success, but he was held to 57 yards or fewer in six of Houston’s final eight games.

Unless you count this offense’s performance in a 27-19 loss to Kansas City in Week 16 as impressive, you have to go back to a 34-10 win over Dallas on November 18 to find the last strong performance by this group.

Chargers vs. Texans Best Bets

The Houston D finished tied for fourth in the league with 49 sacks, and it also finished top five in the league in turnovers forced, with 29. So there’s a chance talented pass rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter take this game over and keep it close from start to finish.

What’s far more likely, though, is the Chargers’ underrated defense smothering Houston’s struggling offense in a low-scoring rockfight.

• Chargers -3 (-104) FD 1 unit

• Chargers alt spread -6.5 (+168) available at FD, bet365 0.5 units

Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Preview

How to Watch Steelers vs. Ravens

• Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

• TV: Prime Video

Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Odds

Pittsburgh has had one of the most interesting QB situations of any team in the league this year. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they enter the playoffs after four straight ugly showings by Russell Wilson and the offense.

Wilson, who replaced Justin Fields under center in mid-October, was solid from his Week 7 debut through a 27-17 win over the Browns on December 8. At the time, Pittsburgh’s record was 10-3. At that point, with Baltimore at 8-5, the Steelers looked poised to win the AFC North.

Since the running game stopped humming after Pittsburgh’s Week 9 bye³ , the offense as a whole has underwhelmed, failing to reach 20 points in six of the last nine games.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has been one of the best offensive teams in the league over the last two years, and Lamar Jackson has a real chance to win MVP for the second year in a row.

More importantly, for this team’s Super Bowl aspirations, the defense looks playoff-ready after a rough start to the season by the Baltimore secondary.

Now, with the Ravens run D continuing to shut down opposing RBs and the secondary in much-improved form, Baltimore looks well-rounded enough to comfortably advance, even against a tricky AFC North rival that beat it once this year and twice in 2023 (though one of Pitt’s wins over Baltimore last year came in a meaningless Week 18 clash with the Ravens’ backups).

Steelers vs. Ravens Best Bets

Based on the point spread, this is the most lopsided matchup of the Wild Card round. So the question is: Should we expect Pittsburgh to muck this thing up enough to hang around and cover? Or is taking Baltimore to roll a safe bet?

The Ravens handled Pittsburgh 34-17 when these two met a couple weeks ago thanks to a massive night by Derrick Henry (24 carries for 162 yards, plus two catches for 27 yards) and two bad turnovers by Wilson.

It’s risky to expect a playoff game — especially between two teams with a history like Ravens-Steelers — to go chalk, but the Ravens have too much for Pittsburgh.

Given the size of this spread, it would be wise to play only a small unit on Baltimore to cover, especially with WR Zay Flowers sidelined. I nevertheless think the Ravens have a great chance to win this by two touchdowns, even if it’s close at halftime.

Remember: a year ago in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Baltimore broke open a 10-10 tie at the break and ended up blowing out the Texans, 34-10.

Props are always tricky, but after abandoning the running game in last year’s AFC Championship loss to Kansas City at home cost the Ravens a shot at Super Bowl 58, expect a massive dose of Henry.

At FanDuel, Henry being priced at +130 to reach 110 yards or more is awfully tempting given A) Baltimore’s playoff history, B) the strong possibility of the Ravens playing most of this game with a lead, and C) Henry going for at least 138 on the ground each of the last three weeks.

• Ravens -9.5 (-108) DK 0.75 units

• First Half Under 22.5 (-105) FD 0.5 units

• Derrick Henry 110+ yards rushing (+130) FD 0.5 units

Broncos vs. Bills Betting Preview

Finally, an opportunity to do something besides ramble about how bad the underdog’s offense has been recently.

How to Watch Broncos vs. Bills

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

• TV: CBS

Broncos-Bills Odds

Despite an outstanding regular season by rookie QB Bo Nix and Co., which blew away preseason expectations, the Broncos are heavy underdogs on Sunday in Orchard Park.

That’s mostly a credit to the 13-4 Bills, who went from 3-2 to 13-3 (they lost to the Pats in a meaningless season finale) thanks to a huge — MVP-worthy?? — season by Josh Allen.

Recent history, and this game’s spread, both tell us that on Sunday, Nix and the Broncos will be in over their heads. Denver’s defense has been outstanding all year, but with Allen playing at the level he has this season as both a runner and a passer, Sunday’s Wild Card matchup brings a test unlike anything the Broncos have seen this year.

The Vance Joseph-led D played great for most of this season, but it was not competitive against the Ravens’ offense in Week 9, and it also struggled in Weeks 16 and 17 in losses to the Chargers and Bengals.

Broncos vs. Bills Best Bets

This feels like a situation where the underdog is good enough to make things interesting early, before fading down the stretch. With the point spread and total right on point, as far as I can tell, I’d mostly recommend staying away from this game.

But I won’t cop out completely: if you insist on betting this one, take the Broncos on the first-quarter spread, I guess.

• Broncos first quarter spread +2.5 (+110) DraftKings 0.75 units

Looking Back: Note Dame vs. Penn State (-.02 units)

1H Under 23.5 (-132) ✅| Over 45 (-110) ✅| Leonard Over 50.5 rushing yards (-114) ❌ Leonard alt total 70+ (+205) ❌

• I just had to take the Leonard rushing props, didn’t I … The good news: ND was even more determined to feature him than we thought. He got a season-high 18 carries (!). The bad news:² PSU was ready, holding him to 1.9 yards per carry.

• Even at what seems like a favorable number, never take either side of a first-half total (or a first-half spread) at odds shorter than -115 or -120 (unfortunately it’s hard to find -110 in these markets). That was a sucker bet with a weak payout, even though it cashed.

Ohio State-Texas Best Bets In Review (+0.50 units)

Ohio State -5.5 (-114) FD 2 units ✅✅| Over 53 (-110) bet365 1 unit ❌ | OSU Team Total Over 30.5 (EVEN) FD 0.75 units ❌| Ohio State -13.5 (+200) FD 0.25 units ✅

Ohio State was hardly dominant (the Texas defense deserves a ton of credit for slowing down the Buckeyes), but Jack Sawyer saved us with his game-winning scoop and score in the final minutes.

1  I love this place, but the overzealous prep we do for “winter weather” never ceases to amaze me

2  excuses, excuses, I know

3  140-plus yard rushing games by Pittsburgh from Weeks 1-8: four, in eight games 140-plus yard rushing games by Pittsburgh from Weeks 10-18: two, in nine games