Can Notre Dame Stay Hot? Is Ohio State Unbeatable?

Is it just me, or are the next five days as good as it gets for football fans sickos??

A bunch of blowouts could prevent all the must-see action detailed below from living up to the hype, but seriously, look at this:

I’m excited, you’re excited, so let’s get to it.

But first, a note for anyone planning their weekend around each edition of this newsletter: after today’s (probably excessively long) look at Penn State vs. Notre Dame and Ohio State vs. Texas, I’ll address the NFL Wild Card games in two parts:

• Saturday: Chargers-Texans, Steelers-Ravens and Broncos-Bills

• Sunday: Packers-Eagles, Commanders-Buccaneers and Vikings-Chargers

Jump To

• Penn State vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview

  • Penn State vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds

  • What to Watch in Penn State vs. Notre Dame

  • Penn State vs. Notre Dame Best Bets

    • Best Penn State vs. Notre Dame Player Props

• Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Preview

  • Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Odds

  • What to Watch For in Ohio State vs. Texas

    • Can Ohio State be Contained, Much Less Stopped?

  • Ohio State vs. Texas Best Bets

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview

Orange Bowl Viewing Info

• Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET

• TV: ESPN

The Nittany Lions and the Fighting Irish get the party started in Miami Gardens.

Oddsmakers might list this game as a coin flip by the time it kicks off.

Penn State and Notre Dame have both impressed on their way to this College Football Playoff semifinal matchup.

The former dispatched SMU and Boise State with ease. The latter dominated Indiana, then buried Georgia with a couple of huge plays on either side of the halftime break in a 23-10 win over Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds

Below are how oddsmakers are handicapping this one as of Tuesday afternoon:

On paper, neither of these teams has many weaknesses.

Notre Dame is No. 4 in the nation in points per game (39.4) and No. 2 in points allowed at 13.6.

James Franklin’s Nittany Lions are slightly less imposing at first glance (No. 22 in points scored at 35.1 and No. 7 in points allowed, with 15.8).

Penn State has, however, played a much tougher schedule, including battles with national championship favorite Ohio State and Big Ten champ Oregon. As you may have heard, though, Franklin is 1-14 as Penn State’s head coach against AP top-five opponents.

Notre Dame has three wins over top-15 teams in ESPN’s SP+ (No. 8 Georgia, No. 11 Indiana and No. 12 Texas A&M), but is yet to meet a top-five foe.

Two of the biggest questions entering this game concern the health of Penn State DE Abdul Carter and Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love.

ND coach Marcus Freeman said Wednesday that Love will be in action, while it sounds like we will not know until just before kickoff whether Carter will be available.

What to Watch in Penn State vs. Notre Dame

Ultimately, I could see this one going either way.¹

Will either of these run-heavy offenses get much going against the excellent run D on the other side of the field?

I doubt it. That means trips to the red zone will likely be at a premium for both teams. If it comes down to who finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, the edge probably belongs to Penn State. PSU has scored four TDs in four trips to the red zone in CFP play.

Defensively, Penn State held SMU and Boise to just one touchdown in eight combined trips beyond the 20-yard line.

ND has also played outstanding red zone D, holding Indiana and Georgia to one TD in five red zone possessions. But the Irish offense has turned just three of its six red-zone possessions into TDs.

The other potential deciding factors tonight include the QB battle between Penn State’s Drew Allar and Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard, whose legs (and Georgia’s turnovers and poor special teams) were a huge part of the win over the Dawgs. Leonard finished with 14 carries for 80 yards, and that included some lost yardage on sacks.²

Allar is the better downfield thrower — it’s not particularly close — and star Nittany Lions TE Tyler Warren³ is a better pass-catching weapon than anyone at Leonard’s disposal.

If stud RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are bottled up, can Allar make enough plays against a deep Notre Dame secondary led by star safety Xavier Watts?

I’d love to offer a confident answer here, but I don’t have one.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Best Bets

The total for this game has dropped steadily all week since it opened at 50 points.

I don’t expect a track meet, but in what should be a close game (which will hopefully treat us to a back-and-forth fourth quarter), I think this one will just barely get to at least 46 points.

A low-scoring first 30 minutes wouldn’t surprise me at all, though. The total at halftime of ND vs. UGA was 16 points. Also notable: Penn State has given up a grand total of seven first-half points in two CFP matchups against potent offenses (SMU in the first round, Boise in the quarters).

Here’s as good an example of the importance of line-shopping as you’ll find: the first-half total is listed at 21.5 at DraftKings, 21 at bet365 and … 23.5 (!) at FanDuel.

You have to pay up for the under at that number on FD (at -132, you’d need to bet $132 to win $100), but that still feels like a steal.

• First Half Total Under 23.5 (u-132) FD 1 unit

• Over 45 (-110) bet365 0.5 units

Best Penn State vs. Notre Dame Player Props

Leonard more than makes up for what he lacks as a vertical passer with his outstanding running ability. He’s reached at least 50 yards rushing nine times in 14 games this year. Leonard also picked up 60-plus yards on the ground six times, and he has run for at least 70 yards on five occasions this year.

He’s been money both as a scrambler and on designed runs, especially against stout defenses that have been able to take away Love and the ND WRs. In addition to his success against Georgia, he gashed Texas A&M for 63 yards on 12 carries back in Week 1.

• Riley Leonard rushing yards Over 50.5 (-114) FD 1 unit

• Riley Leonard alt rushing yards 70+ (+205) DK 0.25 units

Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Preview

Cotton Bowl Viewing Info

• Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

• TV: ESPN

The talent on Ohio State’s roster has never been in question.

But losses to Oregon and Michigan (especially the latter, which sputtered to an 8-5 record and a seventh-place finish in the Big Ten) made it fair to ask whether the Buckeyes were less than the sum of their parts.

It would be an understatement to say that OSU silenced the skeptics with its performances against Tennessee and Oregon. I, for one, certainly don’t have any more questions about this team.

Texas has looked great at times in its first two CFP games. The Horns led Clemson 28-10 at halftime, and they controlled the first 30 minutes against Arizona State in the quarterfinals, taking a commanding 17-3 lead to the locker room.

QB Quinn Ewers and Co. have also looked more vulnerable than any of the four teams that are still standing, though.

First, they let Clemson back into the game in the fourth quarter of that first-round matchup after building a 31-10 lead in the third quarter.

They then gave up 16 points to the Sun Devils in the fourth quarter of the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day. In the first overtime, they looked cooked until a 4th-and-13 heave from Ewers to Matthew Golden for an improbable game-saving TD forced a second OT, where Texas prevailed.

Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Odds

Despite the Buckeyes’ 42-17 win over Tennessee and 41-21 beatdown of Oregon, the line for this game looks too good to be true. What am I missing about Texas??

I was as skeptical of Ohio State as anyone entering the College Football Playoff. In fact, I made what I hope will go down as one of the worst predictions in Worth a Sprinkle history before OSU hosted Tennessee in the first round.

The Vols trailed that one 21-10 at halftime and lost 42-17. Was that a result of Tennessee being overrated or OSU not getting enough credit?

Based on what the Buckeyes did to previously undefeated Oregon in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals, the answer is, “Probably both.”

What to Watch For in Ohio State vs. Texas

Texas definitely has a high ceiling when Ewers is on.

The Longhorns, who had 11 players drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft, do not lack for future NFL players. Both offensive tackles, Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams, could be first-round picks next spring, and Thorpe Award-winning CB Jahdae Barron is not the only player on the Texas D who will be playing on Sundays next fall.

But it’s hard for me to see Texas hanging with Ohio State for four quarters after watching what Cam Skattebo (who I will never doubt again) and ASU did to this team down the stretch of the Peach Bowl.

Can Ohio State be Contained, Much Less Stopped?

Say what you will about Will Howard, but he leads a Buckeyes offense that currently looks unstoppable.

Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith is coming off back-to-back historically good outings (13 catches for 290 yards and four TDs combined against Tennessee and Oregon, despite the Buckeyes taking their foot off the gas down the stretch).

Opposite Smith, Ohio State boasts arguably the best “No. 2 WR” in the country in Emeka Egbuka. The 6-1 senior has a great chance to become the latest OSU pass catcher to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft next April.

The OSU OL has played better than it did all season over the last two weeks after losing star OT Josh Simmons in October. RBs TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins and Howard (primarily in short yardage and the red zone) are also rolling, making it a futile case of “pick your poison” for defenses trying to slow down OC Chip Kelly’s group.

The truly scary thought for Texas is that somehow, the OSU D has played as well as the offense the last couple weeks, locking down both Tennessee and Oregon.

Pass rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have been lights-out in the playoffs (7.5 sacks combined in the last two games). They should have another big night against a UT O-line that gave up three sacks to Arizona State and a devastating third-quarter TFL that forced a fumble and a safety.

In the defensive backfield, safety Caleb Downs and corners Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke lead a lockdown unit that has helped the Buckeyes hold everyone but Oregon to 20 or fewer points.

And it’s important to remember that while the Ducks scored 32 in a regular-season win over OSU, they had no such luck in the Rose Bowl. In last week’s rematch, the Ducks needed 13 garbage-time points in the second half to break 20 points after they fell behind 34-8 at the break.

Ohio State vs. Texas Best Bets

At the risk of oversimplifying this game and/or overlooking Texas, this feels like yet another romp by Ohio State.

Are we sure Texas is as good as either of the teams Ohio State just shredded? I’m not.

Let’s go with OSU to roll (as long as it plays anywhere near as well as it did the last two games).

• Ohio State -5.5 (-114) FD 2 units

• Over 53 (-110) bet365 1 unit

• OSU Team Total Over 30.5 (EVEN) FD 0.75 units

• Ohio State alt spread -13.5 (+200) FD 0.25 units

1  #analysis

2  In a sport full of interesting/dumb quirks, I guess it makes sense that sacks (you know, when an offense loses yards on a passing play) count against a QB’s rushing total, but that doesn’t make it any less frustrating.

3  If you’re not familiar with his work, here’s a primer. You’re welcome.