NFL Playoffs Betting Overview: Super Bowl 59 Odds, Analysis

Welcome back!

If you’re enjoying this, do me a huge favor and show the degenerates in your life how much you love them by forwarding Worth a Sprinkle their way.

What better to start with than some housekeeping?

Fair warning: I’m planning to post quite a bit this week and over the next few weeks as football season wraps up (you’re welcome in advance):

• Today: Pre-Wild Card Round Super Bowl 59 Odds, Analysis

• Thursday (a.m.): CFP Semifinal Betting Preview — close looks at Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Penn State, Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas

• Saturday (a.m.): NFL Wild Card Betting Preview, Part I (Chargers at Texans, Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Bills)

• Sunday (noon): NFL Wild Card Betting Preview, Part II (Packers at Eagles, Commanders at Buccaneers, Vikings at Rams)

Before making sense of the current Super Bowl 59 odds, I’d like to say that you’re welcome for the staggering riches (or something like that) you may or may not have racked up thanks to my takes on the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

If I did the math right, you should have racked up damn near an entire unit if you tailed every play from Volume II of Worth a Sprinkle. More on the ROI from Vol. II to come at the end of this piece.

Jump To

• NFL Playoff Futures Odds

  • Latest Super Bowl 59 Odds

• Best Super Bowl 59 Futures Bets Entering Playoffs

  • Best Super Bowl 59 Value Bet: Eagles (+700 at DK, …

  • Best Super Bowl 59 Longshot Bets: Chargers (+3000) …

• NFL Wild Card Betting Odds, Kickoff Times

• Volume II in Review — Record: 4-5 — Profit: 0.86 u …

NFL Playoff Futures Odds

Now that the playoff field is set, the five favorites to win Super Bowl 59 are who we thought they were¹ back in September.

We’re talking, of course, about the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and Eagles. The only teams that failed to make the playoffs despite entering this season with Super Bowl aspirations were the 49ers and Bengals.

All five of the top favorites to win it all (odds below) went 12-5 or better in the regular season. They got rewarded with the top two seeds in the NFC (Detroit at No. 1, Philly at No. 2) and the top three in the AFC (Kansas City snagged the 1-seed, with the Bills and Ravens seeded second and third, respectively).

Latest Super Bowl 59 Odds

Below are the odds to win Super Bowl 59, as of Tuesday, January 7, for all 14 playoff teams.

It’s telling — if not terribly surprising — that there are four easily identifiable tiers, per oddsmakers:

• The favorites (+280-700): DET, KC, BAL, BUF, PHI

• The dark horses (+1600-2800): MIN, GB, TB, LAC

• No real chance² (+4500-9000): WAS, LAR, DEN, HOU, PIT

Best Super Bowl 59 Futures Bets Entering Playoffs

I went on the record for Newsweek back in September and offered the bold Super Bowl prediction that the Chiefs would take down the Lions to give Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Co. yet another Lombardi Trophy.

Against the grain? No.

Outside the box? Not exactly

Looking pretty good? Yes.

Both those teams went 15-2 despite a number of injuries (especially for the Lions). As a result, both offer decent value despite carrying relatively short odds entering the postseason.

Best Super Bowl 59 Value Bet: Eagles (+700 at DK, bet365)

At +600 or longer, the Bills and Ravens are certainly tempting.

Hot take, though: even at tempting prices, I’m not sold on anyone taking down Mahomes and Reid, especially not at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Eagles will likely need a big road upset of their own (over Detroit) to reach the Super Bowl. But would Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the loaded Philly offense outscoring the banged-up Detroit D in a hypothetical NFC Championship Game really shock anyone?

The Eagles have just lost once since Week 4, and that was to the Commanders in a game in which Hurts left early with a concussion. They’re playing well enough on both sides of the ball to win Super Bowl 59 as long as Hurts returns to form quickly after a three-week absence since the concussion he sustained on December 22.

Yes, that’s a massive “if,” but it’s a massive “if” that matches a massive potential payout — one that will not be available after this weekend if Hurts looks like himself in a win over Green Bay.

In fact, casual bettors probably are unaware that Hurts is yet to practice this week mostly because NFL teams are off on Tuesdays. Wednesday typically marks the first real day of prep for the upcoming opponent, especially this time of year. Don’t be surprised if Hurts suits up on Wednesday and the line then moves closer to Eagles -5 or even Eagles -6.

I wouldn’t count on the futures price on this team changing dramatically based on Hurts’ participation on Wednesday, but if you like Philly +700, time is of the essence.

Best Super Bowl 59 Longshot Bets: Chargers (+3000), Rams (+4500)

Hitting either of these teams at 30-to-1 or longer is (obviously) unlikely.

The Chargers, however, have the defense (they’re No. 1 in the league at 17.7 points allowed per game), QB and head coach to make a shocking run in the AFC. L.A. is also tempting because it lost two games to the Chiefs by a total of nine points, and it also fell to Baltimore by just a touchdown.

In the NFC, don’t rule out a run by Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and the Rams. This team played most of the year without multiple starting O-linemen, and dangerous WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua each missed six games due to injuries.

The Rams won the last five meaningful games they played in the regular season, and they already beat their first-round opponent, Minnesota, once this year (30-20 back in Week 8).

NFL Wild Card Betting Odds, Kickoff Times

The odds below come from DraftKings. At this point in the year, the spreads for each of these games are pretty uniform across all major sportsbooks.

• Chargers (-3) at Texans — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (all times ET), CBS

• Steelers at Ravens (-10) — Saturday, 8 p.m., Prime Video

• Broncos at Bills (-8.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

• Packers at Eagles (-4.5) — Sunday, 4:30 p.m., FOX

• Commanders at Buccaneers (-3) — Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC/Peacock

• Vikings (-1.5) at Rams — Monday, 8 p.m., ESPN/ABC

I’ll send out my takes on how to bet these games this weekend, but right now, the favorite I like the most is probably Baltimore.

Volume II in Review — Record: 4-5 — Profit: 0.86 units

Shareholder subscriber value: 📈 

It helps that there was nowhere to go but up after Volume I, which yielded a loss of 3.8 units as all four favorites rolled in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Still, the results below mark a step in the right direction, and more importantly, a bit of profit — 0.86 units, to be exact — for my beloved subscribers.

• Penn State 31, Boise State 14 (+1.58 units)

  • Penn State -11.5 (-110) 1 unit

    Profit? ✅0.91 units

    Breakdown: Boise missed two field goals and nearly drove for a late touchdown that would have given it a painful (at least for us) backdoor cover. Thank you, Nittany Lions safety Tyrece Mill, for the cover-sealing pick in the final seconds.

  • Ashton Jeanty Over 2.5 receptions (+142) 1 unit 🎯 

  • Jeanty alt receptions 4+ (+270) 0.5 units ❌

  • Jeanty alt receptions 5+ (+550) 0.25 units ❌

    Profit? ✅+0.67 units

    Breakdown: Jeanty, who was a pass-catching machine in 2023, was once again an afterthought in that aspect of the game. He got just enough receptions to prevent the entire ladder we cooked up from being a whiff, but his receiving output (three catches for 22 yards) was a bit of a letdown.

• Texas 39, Arizona State 31 (2OT) (-2 units)

  • Texas -12.5 (-110) 1 unit

    Profit? ❌ (minus-1 unit)

    Breakdown: In hindsight, it was easy to see doubting Cam Skattebo backfiring. Not great!

  • Under 51.5 (-110) 1 unit

    Profit? ❌ (minus-1 unit)

    Breakdown: Unders are almost always toast when a game goes to overtime. This was an example of taking the right side and still losing. C’est la vie.

• Ohio State 41, Oregon 21 (+0.91 units)

  • Over 55.5 (-110)

    Profit? ✅ 0.91 units

    Breakdown: Never. In. Doubt. Let’s not talk about the fact that I thought this one was essentially a coin flip. I’m no longer in denial: Ohio State looks terrifying.

• Notre Dame 23, Georgia 10 (+0.37 units)

  • Under 45.5 (-115) 1 unit

    Profit? ✅0.87 units

    Breakdown: Nailed it, special teams TD and all.

  • Georgia -1 (-110) 0.5 units

    Profit? ❌ (minus-0.5 units)

    Breakdown: Georgia made way too many mistakes, and Notre Dame made the Dawgs pay. The Irish are now favorites against Penn State for good reason.

1  Man, I miss Dennis Green

2  no real chance, according to oddsmakers, I should clarify