CFP Quarterfinal Betting Preview

Welcome back and Happy Holidays!

Thanks to all who have already subscribed — I was thrilled at the reception for my first stab at this thing.

I promised in Volume I to offer a (hopefully) smart, entertaining take on how to bet on college football and the NFL. My hope was that the free picks I would give out here would be worth every cent, if not quite lucrative.

Um, about that …

Jump To

• A Quick, Painful Look Back

• Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Preview

  • Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Odds: Spread, M …

  • Can the Nittany Lions Contain Ashton Jeanty?

  • Penn State vs. Boise State Best Bets

• Texas vs. Arizona State Betting Preview

  • Texas vs. Arizona State Best Bets

• Oregon vs. Ohio State Betting Preview

  • Oregon vs. Ohio State Best Bet

• Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Preview

  • Notre Dame vs. Georgia Best Bets

A Quick, Painful Look Back

I owe an apology to those who tailed the bets I gave out for Notre Dame vs. Indiana, SMU vs. Penn State, Clemson vs. Texas and Tennessee vs Ohio State, as my takes on those games mostly¹ failed to live up to my lofty “free picks that don’t suck” standard.

• Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17: Oh yea, I actually got off to a good start. ND -6.5 ✅ and Under 50.5 ✅both cashed, and neither were ever in doubt.

• Penn State 38, SMU 10: SMU +9 ❌ Over 53 ❌ I could blame this game going sideways on Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings’ two early pick-sixes, but it was also pretty clear that the Nittany Lions were the much better team. Yikes.

• Texas 38, Clemson 24: Under 50.5 ❌ This one also missed the mark, but I don’t feel too stupid for expecting good showings from both of these defenses. The Horns had one of their best offensive showings of the season after Quinn Ewers and the offense struggled against Texas A&M and Georgia late in the year.

• Ohio State 42, Tennessee 17: Tenn ML (+235) ❌ Tenn +7.5 ❌ Under 46.5 ❌ Speaking of offenses I underestimated, OSU looked like the offensive juggernaut it was expected to be before this season kicked off. If Will Howard and the Buckeyes can maintain that level of play throughout the Playoff, there might not be anything anyone in the field can do to knock them off.

Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Preview

Turning the page to the quarterfinals of the 2024 College Football Playoff, let’s start with the New Year’s Eve Fiesta Bowl matchup between Penn State and Boise State at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Can the Nittany Lions Contain Ashton Jeanty?

If you haven’t heard, Boise State features arguably the best player in the country, running back Ashton Jeanty. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Travis Hunter, but is coming off one of the best seasons by a running back in the history of the sport.

How will he fare against Penn State’s outstanding defense? That’s the burning question tonight.

The Nittany Lions boast the No. 7 defense in the country according to ESPN’s SP+ ranking. Future top-10 NFL Draft pick Abdul Carter at defensive end leads a front seven that is always stout against the run. This year, though, PSU did give up solid days on the ground to USC (24 carries for 189 yards and 1 TD), Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game (41 carries for 186 yards and 2 TDs) and Ohio State (40 carries for 176 yards).

It’s hard to see Jeanty, who was only held “in check” twice in 13 games this season — he gained 150 yards or more in 11 of 13 games² , including a 192-yard, 3-TD night against Oregon’s top-10 defense (No. 8 per SP+) — failing to get going at all. That being said, it’s even more difficult to imagine the Nittany Lions not making someone besides Jeanty beat them.

So, can Boise win without a monster night from Jeanty? Broncos QB Maddux Madsen (22 passing TDs, 3 interceptions, 62% completion percentage) avoided mistakes this year, but only threw for 250-plus yards in four of his team’s 13 games, even as opposing defenses dared him to throw with eight- and nine-man boxes.

Penn State vs. Boise State Best Bets

Early pick-sixes by SMU, plus homefield advantage, played a huge role in the Nittany Lions’ dominant win in the first round of these playoffs, but PSU still showed that there’s a gap between it and very good, but not quite elite teams like SMU.

Jeanty, who should be dangerous after getting almost a month off since his team’s Mountain West Championship Game win over UNLV, might keep this thing interesting for a half, but I’m going chalk given what we’ve seen from Penn State the last two weeks, when this offense racked up a combined 75 points against Oregon and SMU.

• Penn State -11.5 (-110) available at bet365 1 unit

• Ashton Jeanty Over 2.5 receptions (+142) available at FanDuel 1 unit, Jeanty alt receptions 4+ (+270) 0.5 units, Jeanty alt receptions 5+ (+550) 0.25 units*

* Laddering player props is a fun, low-risk, high-reward way to bet on a dynamic player like Jeanty. I expect him to have one of his biggest receiving nights of his career tonight, especially if Boise State falls behind early.

Texas vs. Arizona State Betting Preview

A New Year’s Day slate full of outstanding matchups kicks off with the Peach Bowl at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Longhorns are 12.5-point favorites across the board against surprising Big 12 champ Arizona State. The Sun Devils feature the best RB in the country not named Ashton Jeanty.

Bruising ASU tailback Cam Skattebo is a must-see playmaker who gives major Mike Alstott vibes. Before I go any further, I’d be remiss to not include some highlights to back up such a comp.

Note: I tried to embed Alstott YouTube highlights as well, but fell short thanks to copyright stuff, so you’ll have to click the link above.

Will Skattebo, who said this week that “there’s nobody out there that can stop me,” be able to run through Texas the way he ran through just about everyone on ASU’s schedule this season??

Given how well the Texas defense played against Texas A&M, Georgia and Clemson — especially against the run — I have my doubts.

That’s more of a credit to the Longhorns than a knock on Skattebo and the ASU O-line, but either way, Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt — like Madsen in Boise-Penn State — is going to need to play his best game of the year, and he’ll have to do so without leading receiver Jordyn Tyson.

I don’t have a hot take here. I like Texas to win fairly comfortably.

ASU, which notched emphatic late-season wins over Kansas State, BYU and Iowa State, but lost to Texas Tech and Cincinnati early this season, might keep this close for a quarter or two, but will ultimately fail to cover against the loaded Longhorns.

Texas vs. Arizona State Best Bets

• Texas -12.5 (-110) available at FanDuel 1 unit

• Under 51.5 (-110) available at FD, bet365 1 unit

Oregon vs. Ohio State Betting Preview

The Rose Bowl rematch between Big Ten rivals??³ Oregon and Ohio State kicks off at 5 p.m. ET from the best venue in college sports.

Man, this one is tough to predict — and the same can be said for the Georgia vs. Notre Dame nightcap.

Oregon went undefeated in its first season in the Big Ten, including a 32-31 home win over the Buckeyes back in October, and finished the regular season ranked No. 1. But the Ducks are 2.5-point underdogs at just about every sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon.

That’s disrespectful to coach Dan Lanning’s Ducks. At the same time, it’s also understandable after Ohio State’s dominant showing against Tennessee. This one feels like a coin flip, so I would stay away from the spread, though a small play on Oregon to win outright is tempting (it would be a lot more tempting if they were longer than +115, but I digress).

Oregon vs. Ohio State Best Bet

Sit back and watch both teams pile up the points — in 2024, even the best defenses are unlikely to keep offenses this good under 30 points. See: Round 1 between these two (highlights below), among other notable shootouts this season.

• Over 55.5 (-110) bet365 1 unit

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Preview

The CFP quarterfinals conclude with what should be an evenly matched defensive showdown in the Sugar Bowl between Georgia and Notre Dame.

Two of the most physical teams in the country give this the feel of a low-scoring brawl, especially after the Irish smothered Indiana in the first round of the CFP. Georgia is without starting QB Carson Beck, but backup Gunner Stockton was solid in his team’s SEC Championship Game win over Texas (12-of-16 passing for 71 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception).

Georgia, which ran the ball 37 times for 141 yards against the stout Texas front, will look to pound away at ND with RB Trevor Etienne. The former Florida Gator picked up 94 yards and two TDs against Texas in the SEC title game. Can the Irish, who lost stud DL Rylie Mills to a knee injury he suffered against Indiana, make Stockton beat them over the top?

I’m not convinced I know the answer to that question, or, if I’m being completely honest, the other ones I expect to decide this matchup. Will ND QB Riley Leonard be able to make plays with his legs against the best DL and linebacker units he’s faced all year? If not, can ND move the ball?

While this is the matchup that feels the hardest to predict, I’m going with the Bulldogs thanks to Kirby Smart’s outstanding track record in big games. I also like the under here, for a number of reasons, including the way the last two UGA-ND meetings played out:

• Georgia 20, Notre Dame 19 (South Bend, 2017)

• Georgia 23, Notre Dame 17 (Athens, 2019)

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Best Bets

• Under 45.5 (-115) available at FD 1 unit

• Georgia -1 (-110) available at bet365 0.5 units

1  Something I definitely didn’t expect to write in the first section of the second installment of this thing: Thank God for Notre Dame

2  It’s worth noting that Boise won both games when Jeanty was held to under 150 yards rushing, beating UNLV 29-24 on October 25 and SDSU 56-24 on November 1

3  These two have been in the same conference for just one season, but if they don’t yet feel like rivals after their first meeting back in October, they will by the time this one’s in the books.