How to Bet Super Bowl LIX: Can the Eagles End the Chiefs' Reign?

Trying to come up with an original and/or intelligent take on the most anticipated sporting event of the year is daunting.

At the same time, not previewing the Super Bowl doesn’t feel like a great idea for a fledgling sports betting newsletter.

Before I get into my thoughts on the big game and which bets are worth making — spoiler: I’m going with Mahomes — The Onion came up with one of the better takes I’ve seen:¹  

Now, let’s get serious.

Jump To

• Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds: Spread, ML, Total

• How to Bet on Super Bowl LIX

  • Mahomes, Chiefs’ Experience to Make the Difference …

  • Super Bowl LIX Best Bets (Sides, Total)

  • Can the Eagles Bring Mahomes Down to Earth?

• Best Super Bowl 59 Prop Bets

Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds: Spread, ML, Total

The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. The line has fluctuated all week and probably will be available at anywhere from Chiefs -1.5 to a pick’em by the time this game finally kicks off.

Right now (Saturday morning), below is what’s available at DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365.

How to Bet on Super Bowl LIX

Me: Think twice about betting much, if at all, on the Super Bowl.

With so much action pouring in from everyone, from avid bettors to people placing their first wagers, most of the odds — especially on player props for stars like Saquon Barkley, Mahomes and Travis Kelce — are far from favorable.

…

Also me: of course we have to place a few bets on the damn Super Bowl!!

I’ll try to keep my game breakdown at least somewhat brief. First time for everything, right?

There’s a reason, after all, why just about everyone — at ESPN, 41 of 67 experts² picked the Chiefs, while NFL.com’s pundits were “split” 21-7 in favor of the reigning champs — is expecting yet another deluge of red and yellow confetti.

Mahomes, Chiefs’ Experience to Make the Difference, Again?

Hot take: I think this game will be really close. Both offenses should be able to move the ball, and it will probably come down to who does the best at A) finishing drives, B) avoiding turnovers and C) avoiding mistakes.³

Have you heard the Eagles probably would have won Super Bowl 57 if not for Jalen Hurts’ backbreaking second-quarter fumble, which Chiefs LB Nick Bolton recovered and returned for a game-changing TD?

Given Mahomes’ incredible playoff track record (record: 17-3, with 43 TD passes and just 8 interceptions), and Hurts’ issues avoiding sacks this year, I’m going out on a limb chalk as hell and saying Philly is more likely to have a costly breakdown than KC.

This postseason, Hurts has gone down 11 times in 80 dropbacks, for an awful sack rate of 13.75. He was also sacked on a career-worst 9.5% of his regular-season dropbacks.

When everything is clicking, as it was in his team’s blowout win over Washington two weeks ago, he’s electric. It’s nevertheless hard to trust him against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that has been outstanding in big games the last couple years, whether the opposing QB was Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, or Josh Allen.

Spagnuolo, of course, also coordinated the Giants defense in 2007, when New York upset Brady and the 18-0 Pats as 12.5.-point ‘dogs.

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets (Sides, Total)

• Kansas City -1 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit

• Under 48.5 (-110 available across the board) 1 unit

Let me start with my take on the total. I’ve flip-flopped since this matchup was set, and I don’t feel great, per se, about the under in this game. Yes, I’m aware of the final score — Chiefs 38, Eagles 35 — of Super Bowl 57.

But after careful consideration (overthinking?) I’ve convinced myself both teams will want to play keep-away. Both the Eagles (Barkley and the running game) and Chiefs (Mahomes’ incredible ability to convert any third down) have the tools to go on long drives that eat up clock. I usually go with overs in contests I expect to come down to the wire, but I could see 24 points being enough to win this one.

The conference championship games two weeks ago both featured a ton of scoring, but the Chiefs and Eagles are much better defensively than Buffalo and Washington.

Can the Eagles Bring Mahomes Down to Earth?

Mahomes has been nearly untouchable in the playoffs for seven years now, but it’s worth looking back at the three losses he suffered when trying to conjure up a recipe for Philadelphia to pull off the upset.

The Chiefs’ three playoff losses with No. 15 under center came following the 2018, 2020 and 2021 regular season.

In 2018, then-23-year-old Mahomes and KC lost a shootout to Tom Brady and the Pats in the AFC title game. In 2020, the injury-ravaged O-line was thoroughly overwhelmed by the Bucs in the only Super Bowl loss this team has suffered in four appearances this era.

In 2021, one of the worst halves of Mahomes’ career against Cincinnati resulted in a stunning upset loss at home.

At this point, it’s a massive understatement to call that debacle the exception to the rule when it comes to playoff Mahomes, who has thrown one pick during his team’s current nine-game playoff winning streak. And I don’t see the issues that plagued this team in its other two Super Bowl losses (inexperience in 2018, awful blocking in 2020) happening again tomorrow night.

I took a flier on the Eagles at +650 before the playoffs began (you’re welcome if you followed my lead there), and I respect their chances in this game enough that I haven’t cashed it out. But I have to go with Kansas City to win it, as I trust this team to overcome Philly’s balanced roster and dominant stars at RB (Saquon Barkley), DT (Jalen Carter) and WR (AJ Brown).

Obviously, it doesn’t help the case for taking the underdog that Philly is even-money, or shorter, on the moneyline.

One last thing on the spread*: keep in mind that in Kansas City’s four previous Super Bowls, it was a

• 1.5-point favorite in Super Bowl 54 vs. San Francisco

• 3-point favorite in Super Bowl 55 vs. Tampa Bay

• 1-point underdog in Super Bowl 57 vs. Philadelphia

• 2-point underdog in Super Bowl 58 vs. San Francisco

*I’m referring to the closing line for these games, according to Pro Football Reference.

Best Super Bowl 59 Prop Bets

There are about a million ways to bet on this game. You can wager on everything from the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on Andy Reid or Nick Sirianni following the final whistle to the national anthem to what Kendrick Lamar will sing at halftime. Yes, really.

But I’m only interested in a couple props, and I’m focusing on the game itself. I don’t expect Barkley to be anything short of awesome, once again, but like I said in the intro, value is hard to come by on a massive name like him on this stage.

For example, he’s -129 to rush for at least 110 yards at DraftKings. Not hard to resist!

As for props I do like, Hurts on the Anytime TD market is tempting, even at short odds like -115 (available at FanDuel, bet365). Remember, he has to enter the touchdown with the football (rushing or receiving) for this bet to hit (passing TDs are a separate, much less enticing market).

Philly’s tush push has been unstoppable against just about everyone. Even after KC’s strong performance against Buffalo’s (stubborn) repeated QB sneaks in the AFC title game, I like the Eagles — who went 6-for-6 on the tush push in Super Bowl 57 — to find the end zone via their signature play if and when they reach the low red zone.

There’s a ton of other props I could talk myself into, but one I like a lot is Xavier Worthy’s rush attempts.

KC’s leading receiver has taken on a much bigger role in recent weeks as a receiver, and he’s also logged at least one carry in each of the last games when he’s been active. In fact, Worthy has totaled at least two carries in four of his last five games. I’d love to bet on him to get 3+ carries, but DK only offers Worthy 2+ carries (-106) and Worthy 4+ carries (+561).

• Hurts Anytime TD (-115 at FD, bet365) 0.5 units

• 🪜Hurts 2+ TD (+550 at FD) 0.25 units 🪜

• Xavier Worthy 2+ carries (-106) 0.5 units

That’s all I’ve got — enjoy the Super Bowl!

And if you need some entertainment between now and kickoff, here are a few gems for anyone who doesn’t spend all their time on the Internet.

1  Great find, Beau — thanks!

2  That’s a lot of experts at one outlet, isn’t it?

3  Hand up: I couldn’t sound like more of a hack, but hopefully owning makes it bearable.