How to Bet NFC, AFC Conference Championship Games

I can’t find a GIF that does Sunday’s NFL action justice, so let’s get right to breaking down today’s two can’t-miss games:

• Commanders at Eagles (-6), 3 p.m. ET on FOX

• Bills at Chiefs (-1.5), 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+

One note first: I’ve made public the Google Sheet where I track how these picks have gone so far. Pretty 🔥 overall, despite a massive whiff on Commanders-Lions, among others.

Interested in the details of how my bets have gone? And/or want to feel better about your own grasp of Excel? Check it out!

Jump To

• Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Preview

  • WAS-PHI Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Commanders vs. Eagles Best Bets

  • Commanders vs. Eagles Best Prop Bets

• Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

  • BUF-KC Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

  • Keys to Buffalo vs. Kansas City

  • Bills vs. Chiefs Best Bets

  • Bills vs. Chiefs Best Prop Bets

Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Preview

The NFC East rivals kick off today’s action in the third meeting of the season between these teams.

In Week 11, Saquon Barkley ran for 146 yards and 2 TDs in a 26-18 win by the Eagles.

Washington squeaked out an upset at home in Week 16 (despite another huge game by Barkley), as Jayden Daniels threw for 5 touchdowns and the Commanders stunned Philly. The Eagles were without Jalen Hurts for most of that game due to a concussion he suffered in the first quarter on a hit by Washington LB Frankie Luvu.

Jalen Hurts #eagles

Being evaluated for a concussion after this hit pic.twitter.com/CS0gRQD5hp

— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) December 22, 2024

No, you cannot — at least as far as I know — wager on how many times that clip will air this afternoon.

WAS-PHI Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

If you like the Eagles to win by a touchdown, I suggest you place your bet now (if you haven’t already), as there’s a good chance the line will be Philly -7 at most places by kickoff.

This game is fascinating in about a million ways, but I’m going to stick with a couple key questions before throwing out my best bets.

Can Washington block Jalen Carter without Sam Cosmi?

Star Eagles DT Jalen Carter wrecked the Rams’ would-be comeback drive last Sunday. Washington would have its hands full with him under any circumstances, but the task of blocking him will be much more difficult without right guard Sam Cosmi, who suffered a torn ACL in last Sunday’s win over Detroit.

Trent Scott replaced Cosmi last week and is expected to start on Sunday. If he and the Commanders’ OL can somehow neutralize Carter, Washington’s upset chances will improve dramatically.

Do the Commanders have a chance of slowing down Philly’s humming run game?

More tough news in the trenches for Washington: DT Daron Payne will also miss Sunday’s game. The Commanders’ run D was a liability all season with Payne in the lineup.

Against Barkley, who gashed this team for 296 yards and 4 TDs in two regular season matchups, Washington will need its best performance of the season against the run to give the Jayden Daniels-led offense a chance.

It’s worth noting that Philly could be without starting center Cam Jurgens, who missed practice Thursday due to a back injury, though Nick Sirianni expressed optimism that Jurgens will be on the field in this game.

Commanders vs. Eagles Best Bets

Ruling out yet another upset by Washington isn’t something I’m willing to do. Jayden Daniels is just playing too well, and the wins over Tampa and Detroit on the road in the playoffs showed that this team can beat anyone.

The Eagles offense hasn’t gotten much from anyone other than Barkley in the playoffs (Philly threw for a total of less than 200 yards in wins over Green Bay in the Wild Card round and L.A. in the Divisional). In addition, the uncertainty around Hurts’ mobility is another reason to expect this game to be close.

But at the risk of making it all about one guy, Washington simply does not appear to have an answer for Barkley if the Eagles are willing to give him 25-30 touches — and it would be shocking they aren’t.

In addition to his 29 attempts/targets against Washington in Week 11 and his 30 attempts/targets in Week 16, Barkley has racked up 57 touches in two playoff games.

Daniels is too good for me to trust Philly to cover this spread. Even if the Eagles control this game most of the way, I think that at minimum, there’s a good chance Daniels will get hot at some point and secure a backdoor cover for Washington bettors.

To me, it all adds up to the Over feeling like the safest bet, but even that feels like less than a sure thing.

• Over 46.5 (-118 at DraftKings) 0.5 units

Commanders vs. Eagles Best Prop Bets

My best prop bets for this game revolve around Barkley¹ — both his rushing attempts and his rushing/receiving yards. How can you resist a guy on a heater of this magnitude?

I’m also eyeing Hurts’ rushing yards. I have a feeling he’s going to be healthy enough to burn Washington early given how much attention will be on Barkley.

To avoid jinxing it, I don’t even want to spell out how tempting Barkley is at plus-money to record at least 150 combined rushing/receiving yards.

• Saquon Barkley 150+ rush/receiving yards (+104 at DK) 1 unit

• 🪜Barkley 175+ rush/rec yards 🪜 (+225 at DK) 0.5 units

• Barkley over 24.5 rush attempts (-102 at FD) 1 unit

• 🪜Barkley alt rush attempts 30+🪜 (+330 at DK) 0.25 units

• Jalen Hurts alt rushing yards 40+(+180 at bet365)²  0.5 units

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

Once again, the AFC’s Super Bowl berth will be decided by a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

On one hand, it feels like last year’s Divisional matchup in Buffalo between these teams represented the Bills’ best chance to knock off the Chiefs. (Sadly, I can’t embed a YouTube video here, but check out the link to relive last year’s game).

But does betting against Allen and the Bills really feel like a great idea??

BUF-KC Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Warning before you give this any more time: this isn’t the first or the last time I’ll write who knows how many words that all amount to, “I have no clue.”

But if you think that means I don’t have anything to say about this game, you must be new here!

Keys to Buffalo vs. Kansas City

Can Buffalo run on the Chiefs?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this become a shootout between Allen and Mahomes late, but IMO, this one is going to mostly come down to the running game. Kansas City boasts a solid run defense, but that shouldn’t stop Buffalo, which ran for 147 tough yards against Baltimore’s excellent front seven, from pounding away at Chris Jones and Co.

The Bills got just one big pass play last week, an early 34-yard completion from Allen to Khalil Shakir. They still managed to knock off Lamar Jackson and the Ravens thanks to not only the three turnovers their defense forced, but their methodical ground game. Buffalo managed to produce 141 yards on 37 carries last Sunday despite not recording a single rush of more than 17 yards.

Replicating that success today would give Buffalo a great chance to make its first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.

Is the banged-up Bills D up to the challenge?

The bad news for Buffalo is that it’s without starting safety Taylor Rapp. The good news is that three key defensive players who are questionable — linebacker Matt Milano (hamstring), nickel corner Taron Johnson (neck/shoulder) and corner Christian Benford (concussion) — are available tonight, according to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle’s Sal Maiorana.

Hot take: that’s going to be an issue against a Kansas City passing attack that is much more potent than it looked last week against Houston. Even at full strength, the Bills don’t have nearly the same caliber of pass rush and corners as the Texans, and the absence of Rapp and the uncertainty around Milano are concerning.

Every Chiefs pass-catcher besides Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy struggled to make an impact downfield against Houston. Today, however, Worthy, Hollywood Brown and/or DeAndre Hopkins should have opportunities as long as the Chiefs can give Mahomes time to throw.

Buffalo is going to struggle to get stops unless it gets massive performances from Milano (3 QB hits against Baltimore), DL Ed Oliver and the rest of the front seven.

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Bets

If Buffalo were at full strength, I’d probably take them here (or at least I like to think so).

But I like the Chiefs to outscore the visitors as long as they take care of the football. And given Mahomes and the Chiefs’ track record, it’s hard to imagine them committing more than a turnover or two, tops.

Allen and the underdog Bills will make this another instant classic, but I’m going chalk. There’s just not enough upside to to take Buffalo on either the spread or moneyline at these odds.

The over is what I feel best about, as back-and-forth games rarely go under, even if both defenses are solid for 45 minutes or more, but I also like the Chiefs to win yet another close AFC Championship Game.

• Over 48.5 (-112 at DraftKings) 1 unit

• Chiefs -1.5 (-114 at FanDuel) 0.5 units

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Prop Bets

Allen is going to get his on the ground, one way or another — especially in the red zone. That makes his rushing attempts and ATTD plays both enticing. … Actually, it would make his rushing attempts enticing if those lines weren’t absolutely disrespectful.

Given what he’s priced at to get to 10 carries a week after being even money in that market — he’s -140 (no thanks) — we're steering clear.

• Josh Allen ATTD (-115 at DK) 1 unit

• 🪜Allen 2+ TDS 🪜 (+500 at DK, FD) 0.25 units

• Allen rush attempts (upon further review, 🙅‍♂️)

1  surprise, surprise! While these plays are admittedly obvious, if this game plays out anything like Eagles vs. Rams did for us, we’ll make some money

2  this is great value, as the prices on Hurts to rush for at least 40 yards are +133 at DraftKings and +160 at FanDuel