NFL Wild Card Preview, Part II: GB-PHI, WAS-TB, MIN-LAR

Given that it’s already Sunday afternoon, I’m going to get through the Green Bay vs. Philadelphia, Washington vs. Tampa Bay and Vikings vs. Rams matchups as quickly as possible.

How to Watch NFL Wild Card Sunday, Monday

• Green Bay at Philadelphia (-5.5), 4:30 p.m., FOX

• Washington at Tampa Bay (-3), 8 p.m., NBC/Peacock

• Minnesota (-2.5) at Los Angeles, 8 p.m. (Monday), ESPN/ABC

Jump To

• Packers vs. Eagles Betting Preview

  • Packers vs. Eagles Best Bets

• Commanders vs. Buccaneers Betting Preview

  • Commanders vs. Bucs Best Bets

• Vikings vs. Rams Betting Preview

  • Vikings vs. Rams Best Bets

Packers vs. Eagles Betting Preview

• Spread: Eagles -5.5 | Total: 45.5

Green Bay was solid all year, but struggled against the best offenses it faced. After losing to Philadelphia in Week 1 and getting swept by both Minnesota and Detroit, can Green Bay get enough stops against the high-powered Eagles offense to pull off a road upset?

Assuming Jalen Hurts is healthy, I doubt it. The Eagles have the best running game in the league, and they should have no qualms about pounding away with Saquon Barkley and Hurts until Green Bay proves it can stop the dangerous Philly ground game.

The Packers allowed just 4 yards per carry this season, including a solid showing against Barkley when these teams met in the season opener in São Paulo. It sounds strange to praise a defense for allowing 109 yards and two TDs on 24 carries to a running back, but GB “holding” Barkley — who averaged 5.8 yards per carry this year and topped 2,000 yards rushing — to 4.5 ypc was notable.

Offensively, Jordan Love is a high-upside wild card after struggling against Minnesota in Week 17 and leaving his team’s regular-season finale against Chicago early last weekend due to injury.

Will Green Bay get the Love who carved up the Cowboys in the playoffs a year ago? On the road, against a Philly defense that has played well down the stretch (outside of a poor showing against Washington in Week 16), that seems unlikely.

Packers vs. Eagles Best Bets

These two played an entertaining, high-scoring game in Week 1, with Philly winning 34-29 despite three turnovers. Though both these defenses are solid, I feel confident the winner of this game will need at least 28 points, making the over a safe play.

I also like Philly to win and cover at home, even if it takes a late touchdown to cover the spread.

The Eagles just have too much talent on both sides of the ball, and Love’s late-season performances against Detroit (Week 14) and Minnesota (Week 17) didn’t inspire confidence.

• Over 45.5 (-110) DraftKings 1 unit

• Eagles -5.5 (-110) bet365 0.5 units

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Betting Preview

• Spread: Tampa Bay -3 | Total: 51.5

Just like Packers vs. Eagles brings a rematch of a Week 1 matchup, today’s late game also pits two teams that played each other on opening weekend.

The Buccaneers won that one 37-20 to spoil Jayden Daniels’ NFL debut, but that was about the only thing that went wrong for the former Heisman Trophy winner this year. Daniels is a lock to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after throwing for 3,500-plus yards and 25 TDs and adding nearly 900 yards, plus six rushing TDs.

The Bucs were better on offense than defense this season thanks to another big year by Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, but the D will get a boost on Sunday night from the return of star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and starting corner Jamel Dean. Those two should help contain Daniels, Terry McLaurin and the Washington offense.

Washington is a popular upset pick this weekend thanks to Daniels¹ , but I like Tampa at home thanks to the matchup of the Bucs offense vs the Commanders’ defense.

The Bucs should be able to run the ball with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White to keep Daniels on the sideline. I also like the aggressive Tampa defense to force the rookie into just enough mistakes for the Bucs to move onto the divisional round for the second year in a row.

Commanders vs. Bucs Best Bets

I’m a little worried about Tampa -3 resulting in a push, so I wouldn’t hammer that by any means. A small play on the favorites still makes sense, though.

And despite all the signs that this could be a track meet, I like this game, which features easily the highest total of the weekend, to go under.

• Tampa Bay -3 (-110) DraftKings 0.5 units

• Under 51.5 (-110) bet365 0.5 units

Vikings vs. Rams Betting Preview

• Spread: Vikings -2.5 | Total: 47.5 (DraftKings)

We’ve already seen one massive performance this weekend by a home underdog. On Saturday, the Texans dominated the second half of their matchup with the Chargers to send Justin Herbert and Co. packing.

On Monday night, will the Rams be able to upset the Vikings for the second time this season?

As impressive as Sam Darnold and Minnesota were all year, I like L.A. as the home dog here, even as I fear overreacting to one bad disastrous showing by the Vikings offense. I’m referring, of course, to Minnesota’s 31-9 loss to Detroit in primetime in a game that could have ended with the Vikes holding the 1-seed in the NFC.

Instead, Minnesota has to travel to L.A. to take on Matthew Stafford and a Rams team that won five games in a row down the stretch to win the NFC West, then rested a number of key players in Week 18.

At home, and fresh off what was effectively a bye for any player that needed a day off, Sean McVay and the Rams are live dogs with Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and the O-line healthy (if not for injuries to Nacua, Kupp and multiple starting O-linemen, the Rams would have never started this season 1-4).

The Minnesota defense has made a ton of big plays this year, producing a league-best 24 interceptions to go with 49 sacks, good enough for the fourth-most in the NFL.

But I expect Stafford to continue to throw short and avoid negative plays after L.A. turned it over just three times in the last eight games of the season. It’s incredible that Stafford finished the season as one of the least-sacked QBs in the league. He went down just 28 times in 16 games, and that’s despite massive early-season OL issues that resulted in him getting sacked 16 times from Weeks 1-5.

Vikings vs. Rams Best Bets

L.A. will avoid mistakes well enough to keep this one close in a high-scoring battle that could come down to who has the ball last.

The question is, do we take the Rams just to cover, or to win outright?

Based on what we’ve seen over their entire careers, I’m going with Stafford to make one more play than Darnold.

The latter is making his first career playoff start on the road against a defense that was able to make Minnesota one-dimensional² back in October.

• Over 47.5 (-112) DraftKings 1 unit

• Rams moneyline (+126) FanDuel 0.5 units

1  related: for the last two years, no one seems to believe in Tampa Bay, regardless of what they do on the field

2  the Vikes picked up just 64 yards on 22 carries against the Rams in Week 8